Gold closed August at $4,449, up $404 or 10.0% from July's close of $4,045, its strongest month since January1. The gain came in two bursts, one in the first week on hopes for a Strait of Hormuz deal and a weak jobs report, and one in the third week as the national debt crossed $40 trillion and the Treasury moved to cap long-end yields. Between them the metal reached a three-month high of $4,659 on August 25 before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole address took more than $200 off the price in the final four sessions.

Gold price, July 31 to August 31, 2026
Gold added $404 in August. The two vertical moves are August 5 (Hormuz deal hopes) and August 19 (FOMC minutes, $40 trillion debt, Treasury buybacks); the slide at right begins with the July PCE report on August 26 and accelerates after Warsh's August 28 speech.

Hormuz hopes and a negative payrolls print

The month's first big move came on Wednesday, August 5, when gold jumped $170, or 4.2%, to $4,247 after President Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as that day2. The prospect of a reopened strait drained the war premium out of oil, and with it some of the inflation expectations that had markets pricing a September rate hike. The deal did not materialize, but the repricing stuck.

Friday's July jobs report added to it. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 against a consensus for a gain of 83,000, driven by a 53,000 drop in government employment. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% only because fewer people were working or looking for work, and average hourly earnings slowed to 3.2% year over year, the weakest since May 20213. Gold rose $101 on the day to $4,342, closing its first week of August up 7.3%.

A cooler CPI, a firmer PPI

The July consumer price index, released August 12, came in at 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 2.5% on the year, and energy fell 1.5%4. Gold added $40 to $4,409 and the implied odds of a September hike, which had stood at 61% right after the July FOMC meeting, slipped below 40%5.

The next day's producer price index cut the other way. Headline PPI was flat, softer than expected, but the core measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%, and gold gave back $57 as traders booked profits at a two-month high6. The metal spent the rest of the week consolidating between $4,350 and $4,420.

The $40 trillion week

Gold fell $82 on Tuesday, August 18, as the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.72%, near a one-year high, after special envoy Jared Kushner said Iran was unwilling to compromise on U.S. demands7. That was the low point of the month's second half.

On Wednesday, August 19, three things landed at once. The Treasury's Daily Statement showed total public debt outstanding at $40.05 trillion, crossing $40 trillion months earlier than forecasters had expected8. The Treasury also announced that it would at least double the size of its long-end liquidity support buybacks, from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, in the 10- to 30-year sector where yields had reached levels last seen in 20079. And the minutes of the July 28 and 29 FOMC meeting showed a 9-to-3 vote to hold the funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari, and Dallas's Lorie Logan dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase10. The minutes said increases would likely be needed if inflation did not decline, but the market read the majority's patience as the stronger signal.

Gold rose $188, or 4.4%, to $4,523 that day and reached $4,603 by Friday, a 5.2% weekly gain. Behind the price action sat a structural bid: the World Gold Council reported at the end of July that central banks bought a record 289 tonnes in the second quarter, led by Poland at 51 tonnes and China at 33, during a quarter in which the price fell roughly 16%11.

PCE and Jackson Hole

The rally peaked at $4,659 on Tuesday, August 25. On Wednesday the July personal consumption expenditures index printed 3.7% year over year against a 3.6% forecast, with core PCE holding at 3.3%12. Gold dropped $64.

Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 28, his hundredth day as chair. He said the Fed's preferred inflation gauge was running at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six, that progress had been modest over two years, and that the Fed needed to see inflation "moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed"13. He declined to offer forward guidance on the September meeting, which markets took as leaving a hike on the table. The implied probability of a September increase, near 30% going in, rose to about 60% by the close and 66% by Monday14. Gold fell $147, or 3.2%, to $4,455, and ended the month at $4,449 on the 31st. It has slipped further since, trading near $4,350 as this is published.

What to watch next

The August CPI report on Friday, September 11 is the last major inflation print before the FOMC meets on September 15 and 16. The decision on the 16th comes with an updated Summary of Economic Projections, and with two-thirds of a hike now priced, the dot plot may matter more than the rate itself. The enlarged Treasury buybacks begin September 9. On Hormuz, Iran and Oman are discussing an "interim framework" for a temporary shipping corridor, but the White House says there are no direct talks under way15, so the war premium that came out of oil on August 5 could come back just as fast.

Sources

  1. metals.dev, daily spot gold closes in U.S. dollars per troy ounce; all prices in this article are spot unless noted
  2. Yahoo Finance, gold prices, August 5, 2026
  3. CNBC, July 2026 jobs report, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release of August 7, 2026
  4. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, July 2026, released August 12, 2026
  5. CME FedWatch Tool, implied Fed funds rate probabilities, as reported by CNBC and Yahoo Finance
  6. USAGOLD, daily market report, August 13, 2026
  7. Yahoo Finance, gold prices, August 18, 2026
  8. The Washington Post, U.S. debt hits $40 trillion, August 19, 2026
  9. U.S. Department of the Treasury, increased sizes of nominal long-end liquidity support buybacks
  10. Federal Reserve, minutes of the FOMC meeting of July 28 and 29, 2026
  11. World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026, central banks
  12. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, July 2026
  13. Federal Reserve, keynote remarks by Chairman Warsh at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, August 28, 2026
  14. CNBC, September Fed decision now a coin flip, August 28, 2026
  15. Bloomberg, Iran, Oman push talks for interim reopening of Hormuz Strait, August 25, 2026