Gold extended its post-minutes recovery into a second week, closing Friday at $4,621, up 0.9% on the week and roughly $80 above the May 14 CPI-driven low. The catalyst was the April personal consumption expenditures price index, which came in at 2.4% year over year on the headline measure and 2.5% on core, both modestly below consensus1, 2.

Gold price, May 22 to May 29, 2026
Gold added $38 over a four-day, holiday-shortened week, with the biggest single-day move coming Friday after the April PCE report confirmed inflation continues to cool.

PCE confirms the dovish tilt

Headline PCE inflation came in at 2.4% versus the 2.5% consensus, the lowest reading since November. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, eased to 2.5% from 2.6% in March2. Month-over-month gains on both measures registered 0.2%, slightly below expectations.

The print validates the more dovish posture revealed in last week's April FOMC minutes, which showed several committee members open to cutting rates at the July or September meeting if inflation continued to cool. With back-to-back soft readings now in hand, markets accelerated their cut-pricing into the long Memorial Day weekend and through Friday's close.

Markets reprice

The implied probability of a September cut climbed to 71%, up from 58% a week ago, and a second cut by year-end is now priced at 54%3. The two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.86%, the lowest level in three months. The 10-year settled at 4.14%, down seven basis points on the week4.

The dollar index dropped 0.6% on the week to 104.8, its lowest close since early April5. Lower yields and a softer dollar are the two cleanest tailwinds for gold, and the metal responded by adding $38 over the four trading days.

What to watch next

The May nonfarm payrolls release on Friday June 6 is the next major data point. Consensus calls for 165,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. A miss to the downside would likely push gold toward the year-to-date highs near $4,720. The June FOMC meeting on the 17th and 18th is the larger event, with the updated dot plot expected to show at least one additional 2026 cut relative to the March projections.

Sources

  1. Yahoo Finance, COMEX gold futures (GC=F) weekly settlement
  2. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays release, April 2026
  3. CME FedWatch Tool, implied Fed funds rate probabilities
  4. U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily Treasury par yield curve
  5. Intercontinental Exchange, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) historical data