Gold climbed back above $4,580 this week, recovering more than half of last week's CPI-driven decline. The April FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, showed a more divided committee than markets had assumed, with several participants explicitly open to cutting rates in the next two meetings if inflation continues to cool1, 2.

Gold price, May 15 to May 22, 2026
Gold reversed most of the prior week's drop, rallying $30 from Wednesday's intraday low through Friday's close as Treasury yields and the dollar both eased.

What the minutes said

The minutes revealed that a "number" of FOMC participants saw a "reasonable case" for cuts at either the July or September meeting, language that surprised markets given the hawkish tone of Chair Powell's post-meeting press conference2. Several members noted that the recent uptick in inflation appeared driven by transitory factors in services and shelter, and that core PCE was tracking lower than headline CPI.

Markets responded quickly. The implied probability of a September cut rebounded to 58% from 35% at the start of the week, and a second cut by year-end is now priced at 42%3.

Treasury yields ease

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.21% by Friday's close, down from 4.32% a week earlier4. Real yields, measured by the 10-year TIPS, also came off their recent highs. The dollar index gave back 0.7% to settle at 105.45.

For gold, falling real yields and a softer dollar are textbook tailwinds. The metal added roughly $30 from Wednesday's low through Friday's close.

A four-day week ahead

U.S. markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day. COMEX gold futures will trade a shortened session with an early close at 1:00 PM ET. The next major catalyst is the April PCE inflation print, due Friday May 29. A reading below the 2.6% consensus would likely extend the rally toward $4,650, while a hot print risks a fresh test of $4,540 support.

Sources

  1. Yahoo Finance, COMEX gold futures (GC=F) weekly settlement
  2. Federal Reserve, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 2026 meeting
  3. CME FedWatch Tool, implied Fed funds rate probabilities
  4. U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily Treasury par yield curve
  5. Intercontinental Exchange, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) historical data