Gold prices held steady through Monday and into Tuesday after last week's CPI-driven selloff, with traders staying on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's release of the April FOMC meeting minutes. The metal traded in a narrow range between $4,548 and $4,578, the tightest two-day band in five weeks1.

Gold price, May 12 to May 19, 2026
Gold compressed into a narrow $30 band early this week after a 2.8% drop the previous Wednesday, when an above-consensus CPI print pushed yields higher.

A quiet floor under the market

Despite the recent surge in real yields, official-sector demand has remained a powerful floor under prices. The World Gold Council reported that central banks added 196 tonnes to global reserves in Q1, the third-strongest first-quarter total on record2. The People's Bank of China extended its purchase streak to 30 consecutive months in its April update, a signal that the strategic case for de-dollarization remains intact regardless of short-term U.S. rate moves3.

Yields and the dollar

The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.29% on Monday, little changed from Friday's close4. The dollar index gave back a small portion of its weekly gain, slipping to 105.45. Both moves suggest markets are waiting for fresh data and Fed guidance rather than committing to a new direction.

What to watch

Wednesday's minutes will be parsed closely for any sign of internal disagreement about the path forward. Markets are pricing roughly a 35% probability of a September cut, down from 62% a month ago6. A more hawkish tone could push gold back toward the $4,500 support level that has held three times in 2026, while any reference to "modest" or "gradual" easing would likely reopen the path to $4,700.

Sources

  1. Yahoo Finance, COMEX gold futures (GC=F) intraday data, May 18 to May 19, 2026
  2. World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends, Q1 2026 report
  3. People's Bank of China, official foreign exchange reserve data release, April 2026
  4. U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily Treasury par yield curve
  5. Intercontinental Exchange, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) settlement data
  6. CME FedWatch Tool, implied Fed funds rate probabilities