Gold Slips Toward $4,500 as Hawkish Fed Minutes Lift Yields

Gold extended a three-week decline, closing the week down 1.4% at $4,538¹. The release of the March FOMC minutes on Wednesday revealed a more divided committee than markets had assumed, with several participants explicitly cautioning against premature easing². Treasury yields jumped, and a stronger dollar weighed on the metal throughout the week.

Inside the Fed minutes

The minutes showed that a "few" participants viewed current policy as "perhaps less restrictive than they had previously judged," language that was new and notably hawkish². Several officials suggested they would need to see "a string of better inflation readings" before voting for a cut. Markets responded by trimming the implied probability of a June cut to 18%, down from 41% before the release³.

Yields lift, dollar firms

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.46% from 4.34% over the course of the week, a fresh two-month high⁴. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 106.3, supported by widening rate differentials with European bonds⁵.

Oil tailwind not enough

A 3.2% gain in Brent crude prices this week, partly on renewed Iran-related concerns, was not enough to offset the rate-driven headwinds for gold⁶. The simultaneous rise in nominal yields and inflation expectations left real yields slightly higher on the week.

Levels to watch

The first major support sits at the $4,500 round number, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. A break below would open a path toward $4,400. On the upside, $4,650 would need to give way to argue the downtrend has broken.

Sources

1. Yahoo Finance, COMEX gold futures (GC=F) weekly settlement
2. Federal Reserve, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 2026 meeting
3. CME FedWatch Tool, implied Fed funds rate probabilities
4. U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily Treasury par yield curve
5. Intercontinental Exchange, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) historical data
6. ICE Futures Europe, Brent crude oil futures weekly settlement